What does a survivable rung of 5x over one week actually mean?

That 95 per cent of the 396 or so weekly windows measured per market never moved far enough against the entry to liquidate at that rung. It is a statement about the sample of bars held, not a forecast, and one window in 20 in that same sample did liquidate.

Why does the survivable rung fall as the hold gets longer?

Because the distance to liquidation is fixed by the rung while the adverse excursion grows with time. The median market's 95th-percentile excursion is 0.17 per cent at one minute and 18.2 per cent at one week, a factor of 108, so the rung has to fall 1.82 steps per tenfold increase in holding time to keep the same 95 per cent coverage.

Can a rung below one minute be computed here?

No. The data vendor's finest granularity is a one-minute bar, so a sub-minute holding period cannot be measured with this dataset even though the venue's chart offers shorter intervals. That gap is a limit of the input, and it is reported rather than interpolated.

Does the cheapest rung to open also survive longest?

The two are unrelated on a flat-fee venue, where a $100 wager opens for $1.00 at 2x and $1.00 at 1000x. On a notional-fee venue cost rises with the rung, and the two bases cross at 23.1x taker, 69.4x maker.

how much leverage a holding period supports

Across 46 markets the modal survivable rung falls from 500x over one minute to 5x over one week, a loss of 6 rungs for a 1,950-fold longer hold.

Figures rebuilt 2026-08-27 by the MarketMoves editorial desk. Every number on this page is derived from the sources named in the methodology.

The table below is the site's single finding. The modal survivable rung on the flat-fee venue is 500x over one minute, agreed by 21 of 46 markets, and 5x over one week, agreed by 24 of 45. That is 6 rungs of the 9 the venue publishes, given up across 3.29 decades of holding time, or 1.82 rungs for every tenfold increase in the length of the hold. The multiplier is not a conviction setting; it is a function of how long the position stays open.

The same shape holds on the notional-fee venue, where the ladder is shorter and the asset ceiling binds first: 10x over one minute on 11 of 18 listed markets, 3x over one week on 14 of 17. The two venues cannot be compared rung for rung, because one caps leverage per asset between 2x and 40x and holds a maintenance buffer, while the other applies one ceiling of 1000x to every market it lists and holds none.

the survivable rung by holding period, with the distribution behind it

Holding period	Moon rung	Markets agreeing	Hyperliquid rung	Markets agreeing	Moon distribution
one minute	500x	21 of 46	10x	11 of 18	200x on 18, 500x on 21, 1000x on 7
five minutes	200x	24 of 46	10x	11 of 18	100x on 18, 200x on 24, 500x on 3, 1000x on 1
one hour	20x	29 of 46	10x	13 of 18	10x on 1, 20x on 29, 50x on 9, 100x on 6, 200x on 1
one session	20x	26 of 46	10x	12 of 18	10x on 11, 20x on 26, 50x on 6, 100x on 2, 200x on 1
one week	5x	24 of 45	3x	14 of 17	2x on 10, 5x on 24, 10x on 10, 20x on 1

The distribution column is the part a single modal figure hides. At one minute the flat-fee venue's markets split across 3 rungs, and at one week across 4. A reader holding one specific market for one specific length of time should take the rung from that market's own row on the child pages rather than from the modal column, because the spread between the highest and lowest survivable rung at one hour is 200x against 10x.

Moon publishes asset classes rather than instrument lists, so every Moon rung above is a rung on Moon's published ladder measured against a market's own bars. Verification stands at 0 confirmed of 50 tracked markets, with 50 unverified, and no cell carries an instrument-level link. Bars from Twelve Data.

excursion grows faster than the ladder shortens

Holding period	Median excursion	95th-percentile excursion	99th percentile	Median windows	Markets
one minute	0.04%	0.17%	0.33%	900	46
five minutes	0.10%	0.42%	0.97%	896	46
one hour	0.47%	2.55%	3.04%	841	46
one session	2.27%	3.58%	3.82%	511	46
one week	4.81%	18.2%	26.5%	396	45

Median across markets, so each row answers what a typical market did rather than what the worst one did. The 95th-percentile adverse excursion rises from 0.17 per cent at one minute to 18.2 per cent at one week, a factor of 108, while the ladder only has 9 rungs to give back. The median column shows how much of the distribution sits below the threshold that sets the rung: at one session the typical market's median excursion is 2.27 per cent against a 95th percentile of 3.58 per cent, so the rung is set by roughly one window in 20 rather than by the ordinary case.

Window counts differ by period because a longer window fits fewer times into the same tail of bars, and because the weekly row is built from daily bars. The typical market contributes 900 windows at one minute and 396 at one week, and that sample size travels with every rung printed on this site.

method

The survivable rung is the highest rung whose distance to liquidation exceeds the 95th-percentile adverse excursion over rolling windows of that length, taking the worse of the long and short side. The ladder is the venue's own, so the answer is always a rung a venue actually offers: 9 rungs from 2x to 1000x on the flat-fee venue and 7 rungs from 2x to 40x on the notional-fee venue, where the ceiling is set per asset. Distance to liquidation is read from the venue registry rather than from a constant, so a change to a maintenance rule reprices every rung in every table: the flat-fee venue holds no maintenance buffer and its room is one part in the multiplier, while the other venue holds half the initial margin at the asset ceiling and loses that much room. Survivable therefore means that 95 per cent of the sampled windows of that length would not have liquidated at that rung, across about 511 windows per market at session length. Registry 2026-08-27a, reviewed through 2026-11-27.

One limit rather than a hedge: the finest bar this site receives is a one-minute bar, so nothing shorter than one minute can be measured here, and the venue's own chart offers shorter intervals than that. The scalping page states what follows from the limit.

the four pages under this one

scalping

one minute to five minutes. Modal rung 500x against a median 95th-percentile excursion of 0.17 per cent across 900 windows, with the ten markets that supported the most and the least.

day trading

one hour to one session. Every market's rung at both horizons, modal 20x at one hour and 20x at one session, against median 95th-percentile excursions of 2.55 per cent and 3.58 per cent.

swing trading

one week from daily bars. Modal rung 5x against a median 95th-percentile excursion of 18.2% across 396 windows, the longest holding period the dataset covers.

how to choose

Four steps: period, rung, availability, then the cost of that rung on each venue and the 23.1x crossover between the fee bases.

Related working: how leverage works, what liquidation is, where the flat fee lands and the calculator, which prices a rung on a stake rather than reading a rung off a distribution.

Opening cost is the taker cost on a $100 wager and excludes carry. The flat-fee venue charges a rolling fee every 8 hours at a rate it does not publish, so that cost is named and left out of every figure, which makes every cost here a floor rather than an estimate. The other venue publishes funding hourly and caps it at 4.00% per hour: funding documentation.

Table stamp 2026-08-27 07:56 UTC UTC, 45 markets tracked in the site build, 46 of them with enough bars to place a rung at one minute.