What $100 would have done, by leverage
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| Leverage | Held to now | Return | Worst point | Cost of the round trip | Outcome |
|---|
Every minute in the window is walked in order and the worst price inside each bar is tested against the liquidation level before the close, so a position that was liquidated mid-window stays liquidated even if the price later recovered. Opened on the ask and marked on the bid for a long, and the reverse for a short. Indicative example based on third-party market data. Moon's reference price, spread, fees, settlement and liquidation rules may produce a different result.
What a move would mean
0.00%My positions
| Bet | Wager | Leverage | Entry | Liquidation | Mark | Profit / Loss | Multiplier | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No open bets | ||||||||
Leveraged BTC over the last 9.5 hours: what it gained and what it lost
9.5 hours, -0.12% net. Nobody got paid for a view on BTC. Here is the ugly part: the short was the correct side and 100x still lost money, $96.39 left of $100. The round trip cost 16% of the stake and the move only paid 0.12%. Wrong side at 50x and $85.81 of the $100 is still there. Open, technically. 3 of 14 rungs did not finish the window. Last to go was 100x long, after 3 hours. Top survivors: 50x long, 100x short. Everything above ignores the 16% of the stake that a 100x round trip costs. BTC has to travel 0.16% your way to refund it, some 5% of a typical session here.
Leveraged trading of Bitcoin (BTC): what has been happening
$79,046.01 last, +0.65% on the session, +0.90% across five. BTC is +23.30% on the month, so it arrives clearly higher. Three months reads +26.00%, year to date -11.02%. The 30-session range is $62,275.00 to $81,272.62, which puts the last price -2.74% off the high and +26.93% off the low.
How volatile is BTC right now
Thirty sessions of realised volatility annualise to 55.3% and ninety to 45.0%, which puts BTC at busy enough to respect. Average true range across 14 sessions is 3.49% of price, and an ordinary day swings about 2.90% either side of flat. Worst case from an open: 3.57% over 30 sessions, 7.44% over 90. Every multiplier decision on BTC is downstream of those two figures.
What leverage BTC actually survives
The ladder tops out at 20x if the requirement is surviving all 30 of the last sessions. 20x dies on 4.950%; BTC got to 3.57% at its worst. Open the window to 90 sessions and it falls to 10x. BTC has gone 0.950% against an open-price long, which is where 100x ends, on 51 of the last 90 sessions. That is 57% of them. 85 of the last 90 sessions cleared the 0.0500% that ends a 1000x position. Per minute rather than per session: median bar 0.0315%, and 32.3% of them would close 1000x without any help from the rest of the day.
BTC liquidation distance and hit rate by leverage
| Leverage | Liquidation distance | Sessions it was hit | Hit rate | Round-trip cost vs stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2x | 49.9500% | 0 / 90 | 0% | 0.3% |
| 5x | 19.9500% | 0 / 90 | 0% | 0.8% |
| 10x | 9.9500% | 0 / 90 | 0% | 1.6% |
| 20x | 4.9500% | 3 / 90 | 3% | 3.2% |
| 50x | 1.9500% | 28 / 90 | 31% | 8.0% |
| 100x | 0.9500% | 51 / 90 | 57% | 16.0% |
| 200x | 0.4500% | 67 / 90 | 74% | 32.0% |
| 500x | 0.1500% | 82 / 90 | 91% | 80.0% |
| 1000x | 0.0500% | 85 / 90 | 94% | 160.0% |
Liquidation distance assumes a 5 basis point maintenance margin: an adverse move of (1 − leverage × maintenance rate) ÷ leverage. Hit count is the number of the last 90 sessions where the low fell that far below the session open, i.e. where a long opened at the open would have been liquidated intraday. Cost assumes 16 basis points of spread and fees on the round trip.
What a leveraged BTC position costs
Fees come off exposure, not off what you put up, which is where the damage hides. At 16 basis points round trip, 10x costs 1.6% of the stake to open and close and 100x costs 16%. BTC has to give back 5% of an ordinary session's range just to clear the 100x round trip. Anything beyond 625x is a donation with a chart attached.
BTC leverage questions
What leverage is realistic on BTC?
On the last 30 sessions of data the highest rung that avoided liquidation on every session was 20x, which liquidates on a 4.950% adverse move.
How far can BTC fall before a 100x long is liquidated?
0.950% at a 5 basis point maintenance margin. BTC moved at least that far against an open-price long on 51 of the last 90 sessions.
How volatile is BTC right now?
30-session realised volatility annualises to 55.3% and 14-session average true range is 3.49% of price.
Does 1000x leverage make sense on BTC?
No, and the fee schedule settles it before volatility gets a say. At 16 basis points round trip, 1000x costs 160% of the stake in spread and fees alone, so the position opens behind by more than the stake. Liquidation sits 0.0500% away, which BTC can cover in a single minute bar.
What has Bitcoin done recently?
+0.65% on the last session, +0.90% over five sessions, +23.30% over a month and -11.02% year to date, inside a 30-session range of $62,275.00 to $81,272.62.
Before you take this to Moon
Everything above is derived from independent third-party market data. Moon prices its own book: the reference price, the spread it quotes, its fee schedule, its funding rate and its liquidation engine are all Moon's, and they will produce a different number from this page. Use this as a model of the mechanics on BTC, then check the live figures on Moon before committing anything.
We have not verified that Moon lists BTC, so there is no link here. When someone checks, this becomes one.
What this simulator is
Prices come from Twelve Data, an independent market-data vendor, and are indicative. Moon's own reference price, spread, fee schedule, funding and liquidation rules will produce a different result. No money is staked here, no order is routed, and no position exists on any venue. At 1000× leverage a 0.01% difference between this chart and Moon's settlement feed moves the position value by roughly 10% of the stake, so treat every number below as an illustration of mechanics rather than a forecast of outcome.
Leverage arithmetic used
Exposure = stake × leverage. Long P/L = exposure × (mark − entry) ÷ entry. Short P/L = exposure × (entry − mark) ÷ entry. Entry takes the ask for a long and the bid for a short; closing does the reverse, so the spread is charged on the round trip. Liquidation triggers when equity falls to the maintenance margin, i.e. at an adverse move of (1 − leverage × maintenance rate) ÷ leverage.
Jurisdiction
Leverage caps, incentive bans and product classification differ by country. Retail CFD rules in the EU cap equity leverage far below the levels shown in this demo and restrict monetary incentives such as rakeback, so the referral block and the maximum selectable leverage must be gated per market before any page goes live. 18+. Trading leveraged products carries a high risk of losing your capital.