methodology

the simulator, and the side of the spread it uses

Exposure is stake multiplied by leverage. A long makes exposure × ((current − entry) ÷ entry). A short makes exposure × ((entry − current) ÷ entry).

The side of the book matters more than that formula suggests. A long opens at the ask and closes at the bid. A short opens at the bid and closes at the ask. Using the last traded price for both ends would quietly delete the spread and make every result better than a real trade. Where a live two-sided quote is unavailable, a synthetic spread of 4 basis points is applied around the mid and labelled as an assumption.

Round-trip cost is modelled at 16 basis points of exposure: spread plus an open fee plus a close fee. Maintenance margin is 5 basis points. At those figures the round trip consumes the entire stake somewhere around 625x before the market has moved at all, which is the single most useful number on the site.

Indicative example based on third-party market data. Moon's reference price, spread, fees, settlement and liquidation rules may produce a different result.

the replay ladder

The ladder takes a fixed $100 stake at each rung of 2x, 5x, 10x, 20x, 50x, 100x, 1000x and runs it through the last 12 hours of one-minute bars for that instrument, long and short. A rung is liquidated the first minute the adverse excursion from entry exceeds the distance its own leverage allows, after maintenance margin. Liquidation is checked against the low for a long and the high for a short, not the close, because a position does not survive a wick by being marked at the end of the minute. Once a rung is liquidated it stays dead. There is no re-entry.

Where minute coverage over the window is thin, the page says so and gives the coverage percentage rather than quietly reporting a curve built from gaps.

volatility and range statistics

Realised volatility is the standard deviation of daily log returns over the stated session count, annualised by the square root of 252 for equities and 365 for crypto and metals. Average true range is the Wilder 14-session figure expressed as a percentage of price. Every figure carries its window, because a percentage without a window is a rumour.

derived daily bars

Where a daily bar is rebuilt from minute bars rather than supplied by the vendor, it is labelled as derived. A rebuilt bar and a vendor print are not the same object and the site does not present them as one.

the catalyst window

A move qualifies as material when it clears the larger of 1.4 times that instrument's own daily standard deviation, 1.5% across the replay window, or 2.5% on the session. The threshold is per instrument on purpose: 2% is a quiet day in one name and an event in another. Sources are searched back 36 hours. Opinion mills, price-target aggregators and press-release wires are excluded from the candidate pool by name. Form 4 and 13F filings are excluded as noise.

Moon availability

An instrument-level Moon link appears only where a person has confirmed the instrument is listed on Moon, and that confirmation expires after 30 days. There is no automated check, because reading Moon's internal endpoints to build a coverage list is not something we do. An unverified instrument shows the reason there is no link instead of a link.

commercial assumptions, and their status

Fees, the leverage ladder and the referral terms live in a dated configuration record, currently version 2026-08-26. Nothing in it has been verified against a live Moon account, so it is modelling input rather than a quoted term, and the site labels it that way. See data sources for the limits on the price feed itself.